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Jake Gardiner, predicting an NHL season will emerge, so 15 key Maple Leaf-related questions heading into camp

The healthiest thing for an older Leaf fans like mysef, in light of the CBA mess, is not to try and analyze  it any more—not that I ever really understood the financial nuances of the debate to begin with.  Who are the "good guys" and the "bad guys"?  It all depends on your point of view going into this, I suppose.  If you assume the wealthy NHL owners are stupid, greedy, can't save themselves from their own silliness and are forever lying to and trying to take advantage of the players, you likely sympathize with the NHLPA.

If, on the other hand, you are tired of players who have made tens of millions of dollars (or more) over very few years and still aren't satisfied (what, I might have to work after I retire like real people?), well, you may not support the owners, but you likely don't feel much sympathy for the players who want to be paid like they are "important", yet act out on social media forums like they are angry five year- olds when their toy is taken away.

Who do you dislike least- Gary Bettman or Donald Fehr?  Does it even matter any more?

That the wealthy and the rich have not yet found an amicable way to divvy up billions of dollars worth of cash—generated for them in part by us, the fans—will always sting a bit.  But it’s better to move on and try to be hopeful that, despite the impasse, there may be hockey in the new year.

My sometimes skeptical nature aside, I want to believe there will be a season.  So I will finally come out and say it:  yes, I think there will be a season, albeit a short one, in 2012-'13.  And if there is indeed a season—and that means the Maple Leafs will  play again at some point soon—where, exactly, are the blue and white heading into that season?  I mean, I know the Marlies are playing well most nights and are filled with talent, but when it comes to the big club, are the Maple Leafs anywhere near being a contending team in the East?  Just a mediocre team?  Below average, perhaps?

I look around the Eastern Conference, and while it has not been an overwhelmingly strong Conference for the last few years, there are some good goalies out there, notably in Montreal, Carolina and New York (Rangers).  But there are also a lot of teams with questions in goal beyond the Maple Leafs.  For example, what will the Bruins have without Tim Thomas?  Can Rask really handle the load in Beantown?

Florida is still thinking about Luongo, it seems.  (Somehow they made the playoffs last season. Go figure.)  Ottawa had a nice season from Anderson a year ago, but do we know for sure he’ll be consistent this season?  What about Tampa in goal, after they gave away a guy who turned into one of last season's better netminders?

Winnipeg, Pittsburgh, the Flyers and the Islanders all have issues in net, as do the Capitals, at least in my mind.  (Holtby was really good for the Caps in the playoffs, but we've all seen that young goalie movie before.  It doesn't always pan out.)  Heck, even the Devils have no guarantees, given Brodeur’s advancing age and now a half season away from the game.  And I’m not personally as big a fan of Ryan Miller as many people are at this point.  For me, he’s a ‘good year, followed by a mediocre year’ kind of guy at this stage of his career.

So I still think that, even though the Habs and Carolina have made some roster moves and, on paper, should be improved, the 7 and 8 playoff slots will, I believe, be wide open.  I concede that the Bruins and Flyers should make the East playoffs even if their goaltending is not stellar in a short season, but beyond the Rangers, who else is really a sure thing?

So it’s there for the Leafs-  if they put together any kind of season at all.

But still, there are questions, especially now that we are looking at actually playing hockey (hey, you gotta believe...).

  1. Which Randy Carlyle will we see—the tough task-masker who made Lupul (and others) crazy in Anaheim, or a kinder, gentler mentor who will be demanding but also a patient teacher with a young Leaf roster?
  2. Will James Reimer come back fully healthy and ready to be a bonafide number-one NHL goalie through the sprint of a shortened season?
  3. On that note, have Burke’s summer proclamations of support for Reimer been a veil to hide his serious interest in Luongo?  Will the Leafs finally strike a long-awaited deal with the hated Canucks for the veteran ‘keeper?
  4. How old will newcomer James van Riemsdyk be when NHL hockey returns?  He was young when we traded for him, but it feels like there hasn’t been NHL hockey in about five years.  Is he 30 yet?
  5. Based on his performance with the Marlies this fall, does Nazem Kadri automatically start the season with the Leafs—and will he stay here for good?
  6. We know who the six likely Leaf defenseman are—Komisarek, Phaneuf, Gunnarsson, Liles, Franson and Gardiner.  But are there roster surprises lurking before the season even gets underway? (Holzer may get a look, but he'll have to be a lot smarter than he was on Saturday, when he iced the puck for no reason in the last minute as the Marlies clung to a precarious one-goal lead....)
  7. If no deal is struck for Luongo, is there a free-agent goalie out there that the Leafs will bring in to back-up Reimer, or is Scrivens the guy?  Are you happy with that?
  8. Will (can?) Lupul repeat his superb 2011-’12 season with the Leafs?
  9. Will Kessel be Kessel, or a better version of his earlier self?  And, will he look to sign an extension in Toronto, or will he have one eye on a huge free-agent contract  around the corner?
  10. Grabovski, Bozak, Connolly (remember him?), McLement, Steckel and Kadri (and van Riemsdyk apparently) can all play center.  So who are our “top four” centers?
  11. Which Nik Kulemin will we see—the 2010-’11 version or the guy we had in 2011-’12?
  12. Besides Frattin, Kadri and of course Gardiner, which current Marlies are sure-fire Leafs come opening night for the Leafs?
  13. Dion Phaneuf is the team’s captain.  But who do you see as the team’s real leader?
  14. Will Burke finally stop making unnecessary public boasts and just focus on building the team?
  15. Do the Maple Leafs have an identity heading into a new season?  If not, will one emerge under Carlyle- and what will it be?


Maybe the biggest question right now is not even on the above list:  Is Jake Gardiner OK, after the weekend injury that he suffered on Saturday against Rochester?

I know you will have even more points to raise, but this gets the conversation going, at least.  By all means, share your thoughts.  And let’s hope we will be talking NHL and Leaf hockey for real for the next few months….

7 comments:

  1. Michael,

    It feels like I have been away forever. Not long enough for the lockout to have passed, but I am glad that I have the time to put my 2 cents in once again.

    1. It concerns me that I see the roster the Leafs have at this point to be one in which, I see Carlyle having huge problems with. I don't see a team that is going to be proficient at the defense first play that the coach has always preached. Big problem in my opinion/

    2. Boy, I sure do hope he can.

    3. Rumours have been plentiful on this front for sure. You know that I can take Luongo or leave him at this point.

    4. Perhaps he is old enough to be the impact power forward the Leafs really need.

    5. I still don't see him as a top 2 line guy in the NHL. He looks good with the added time and space of the AHL. Those 2 commodities are in mighty short supply in the NHL. Not convinced he will ever be what we hope he will be.

    6. Holzer, Kostka, Blacker and Ranger all look like they could be serviceable 6 or 7 guys in the League. Maybe more, we'll see. Lots of depth to trade IMO.

    7. I would not be comfortable with Scrivens and Reimer, at this point in time. No Luongo, means to me a reliable veteran backup at a cheap price is in order.

    8. Yes. He looked to me to have figured out his niche in the League. I don't see him as someone that will go backwards.

    9. Same old, same old here my friend. 35-40 goal pace. Not much else to see here. I am comfortable with that, he is what he is. Do think that he goes elsewhere when this contract is up. He is not a bright lights big spotlight kind of player.

    10. Grabo, Bozak, McClement, Steckel. Connolly will get a lot of pressbox time I figure.

    11. He will get back to the player that was scoring 20-25 goals again.

    12. None, and I don't think Kadri makes the team either.

    13. Tough question. Can I vote for none of the above?

    14. Not a chance. Bettman is more likely to be named most popular.

    15. Identity that I see is the guy at the wedding wearing a suit that doesn't fit. Constantly looks like he would rather be doing anything else, or Phil Kessel 20 times over.

    My question for going forward is this. Are there any stars in the minors? A true bona-fide star in the making? Not a guy who ends up as a third liner or 5 or 6 on D? My hope is holding out for Rielly. I believe Gardiner to already be a Leaf, so I am not counting him. Other than that, I see a lot of guys in the minors who are younger versions of guys they already have.

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  2. Good to hear from you, Jim. Lots of questions, eh? And we haven't touched on them all!

    Gardiner sure looks like the real deal, though I will want to see him "second time through the league" in the NHL, and also in the playoffs. Your reference to time and space above (re Kadri) is important for a lot of players. Gardiner may see a little less "space" this season, too.

    Rielly looks impressive in junior hockey, for sure. Two solid young defensmen like that should bode well for the future, but the proof, as they say, is in the pudding. We'll see!

    Thanks Jim.

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  3. "Which Randy Carlyle will we see?"

    A little of both, he will be a task master with the older guys, but more patient with the younger guys.

    "Will James Reimer come back fully healthy and ready to be a bonafide number-one NHL goalie through the sprint of a shortened season?"

    Healthy and a good season, but maybe not quite a bonafide number one.

    "Will the Leafs finally strike a long-awaited deal with the hated Canucks for the veteran ‘keeper?"

    If it's a good deal or if the team struggles early.

    "Based on his performance with the Marlies this fall, does Nazem Kadri automatically start the season with the Leafs—and will he stay here for good?"

    He's going to get a good look. He might be sharper and in much better game shape than some veterans like Conollly and Lombardi. I think it's finally Kadri's year to stick.

    But are there roster surprises lurking before the season even gets underway?

    It would not surprise me if Franson and Bozak are traded for Luongo before it starts.

    "Will (can?) Lupul repeat his superb 2011-’12 season with the Leafs?"

    No, but he will be close. Something like a 60 point pace if it were a full season.

    "Will Kessel be Kessel, or a better version of his earlier self? And, will he look to sign an extension in Toronto, or will he have one eye on a huge free-agent contract around the corner?"

    Same...around 35+ goals 70 points and he re-signs in TO.

    "Which Nik Kulemin will we see—the 2010-’11 version or the guy we had in 2011-’12?"

    This one is easy. He rebounds. In 28 KHL games this year he already has 11 goals, 12 assists and plus 13. The good old Kulemin is back.

    "Besides Frattin, Kadri and of course Gardiner, which current Marlies are sure-fire Leafs come opening night for the Leafs?"

    Trick question..the answer is Komorov. He is a sure fire Leaf. He looked good as a Marlie but he is playing at a point a game in the KHL. He doesn't look out of place with Backstrom and Ovechkin in the KHL. He's going to show that when needed (because of injury) he can move as high as the second line and produce.

    "Dion Phaneuf is the team’s captain. But who do you see as the team’s real leader?"

    Dion is fine. He will grow more into the role more with a grittier supporting cast.

    "Will Burke finally stop making unnecessary public boasts and just focus on building the team?"

    No he will do both. He can't change anymore than a dog that chases cats.

    "Do the Maple Leafs have an identity heading into a new season? If not, will one emerge under Carlyle- and what will it be?"

    The Leafs identity is going to change. Some of it will start this season. Kadri and Komorov will be parts of the team. Conolly and Lombardi will eventually go. Kadri and Komorov both agitate. Kadri will compete, he will slash and push back. Komorov will play really hard, finish his checks and have a few fights this year. He already had one down in the AHL. Komorov is also a very good defensive player. Though not a tough guy JVR's size will help the team.

    So this year's Leafs will agitate more and be a bit more gritty, but the real changes will occur perhaps next year and the one after. That's when we should see Tyler Biggs and perhaps David Broll. Biggs is 225 and Broll is 235 lbs...and these kids are just 19. They are big, tough and they can actually play the game. When is the last time the Leafs had that? Biggs is playing at a point a game in the OHL...32 in 32. Even more surprising, the 6th rounder Broll has 24 points in 31 games. The other day Ty Bilcke, the OHL's most prolific fighter took a run at Broll's teammate. The 235 lbs Broll overpowers Bilcke, take a look:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CamTcPxjmr0

    Get rid of the softer players, add some more intensity and toughness and I think Phaneuf's job as a leader becomes easier.











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  4. I agree with you on Komarov, DP. From what I saw (which I admit was not a lot) in his time in the AHL, he was a useful agitator-type who can also play. He should certainly fit with the big club.

    I know you are a fan of what Biggs and Broll may bring some day. Two guys to keep an eye on, for sure.

    Thanks DP>

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  5. An interesting bit of news Colby Armstrong has turned up in the ECHL:

    http://echl.com/stats/player.php?id=4597

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  6. Like Jim, I took a hiatus from the NHL news and the CBA squabbling. I have no use for either Bettman or Fehr. It should be noted that any increase in owner's expenses or decrease in revenues will be passed on to the paying fan in the form of increased ticket and merchandise prices. We are the ultimate losers.

    You raise some intriguing questions, the answers of which will go a long way in determining the fate of the Leafs.

    1. A good coach will temper his system to take into consideration the type of player he has inherited. A good coach will learn from his mistakes. I believe that Carlyle is a good coach and will gradually introduce changes. The process has already started with the younger players on the Marlies.

    2. I have faith that Reimer will come back and be the goalie that we saw pre-injury.

    3. I cannot see Gillis and Burke striking an equitable deal. I am not a Luongo fan and would not give up assets for him and his large contract.

    4. I feel that Van Riemsdyk can be a valuable power forward for us. They will not have time to experiment properly with him as a centre.

    5. Kadri had some growing up to do and his time with the Marlies this fall may be a career changer for him. I think he will stick with the Leafs and have a long and productive NHL career.

    6. Holzer was signed to a one way contract for a reason and I believe he will be given every chance to make the team. Ranger is a possibility if he regains his TB form. Blacker looks to be a year or two away. I can only fervently that Burke leaves Rielly in Moose Jaw for the rest of the season.

    7. There are no free agent goalies available who would be an upgrade. The only possibility that I can see would be a trade.

    8. Lupul attained his potential last season. I can see no reason (barring injury) that he will not repeat.

    9. I think Kessel can be a consistent 40 goal scorer. I believe he would have had at least 40 last year if Lupul had not been hurt. I would like to think he will sign a new contract but if negotiations become a problem Burke must trade him sooner rather than later.

    10 Grabovski, Bozak, McLement and Steckel. Kadri should play wing. Connolly can enjoy a seat in the press box. I think a trade for a center is still a possibility.

    11. Nik Kulemin is playing well in Russia. Last year was an aberration. I think he will thrive under Carlyle's system.

    12. Not certain about sure fire but I believe Leo Komarov will make the team and add some sorely needed grit.

    13. I think Lupul is the closest roster player to being a leader.

    14. Burke will be Burke. The gag order must be killing him...explosion imminent!!!

    15. It will be a slow process but I think they will become grittier and much better defensively under Carlyle. They will be a much tougher team to play.

    I believe that they will be a playoff team if the season were to start soon. They had a great start last year but key injuries and lack of depth did them in.

    As an aside: I couldn't help but notice in your previous article your mention of the gentleman who used to yell "c'mon Teeder" during the 50's. When Kennedy retired the gentleman, who I believe sat in the corner blues, began to holler "c'mon Hinkey". Hinkey was Billy "Hinkey" Harris who centered the HEM line between Gerry Ehman and Frank Mahovlich. Unfortunately for Harris and the gentleman, the acquisition of Red Kelly sent Hinkey to the bench and the yell to oblivion. There was no way Imlach was going to play Harris ahead of Pulford, Keon or Kelly.

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  7. Like Jim and DP, you covered a lot important ground here, PeteCam. I think your answers are entirely reasonable. That said, I think we all will likely (if there is indeed a season) embrace a fairly positive pre-season outlook. That is, we will hope/expect that all of the questions above- Lupul, Kessel, Kadri, Kulemin, Reimer, the defense, a tougher identity, etc. all come up roses.

    If not, that recently elusive playoff spot becomes a tougher hill to climb, in my mind.

    Thanks for the Billy Harris reference, PeteCam. A slick, quick center who was a true Leaf- never the same after he left Toronto.

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